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Jesse May: I always try and discern where the public money might go. It usually happens with quarterbacks. The more they talk about Tom Brady, the more you need to be laying the Patriots. So there you have it folks, the experts have spoken. Get involved in our twitter poll below to have your say on who lifts the Vince Lombardi trophy this year.Avtaar  [HD] Rajesh Kahnna - Shabana Azmi - AK Hangal - Gulshan Grover - Best Hindi Movie
Who are you liking for the Superbowl this year. Are the Pats a cert.
Matchbook insights offers unrivalled pre-match and in-play markets for football bettors and traders. On the same day as England's cricketers take on South Africa in the fourth Test match of the summer, Nottingham Forest will take on Millwall and Sunderland will face Derby County. The early start is designed to give players enough time to recover before the World Cup finals next summer. But at the moment the main concern for players and fans in the Championship is the race for the Premier League.
For the second season running the clear favourite for the title is a newly-relegated team from the North East. Boro are 3-1 for automatic promotion and the signs are promising.
They have "a squad that will surely challenge for automatic promotion". So who can challenge them. But they are still 3-1 for automatic promotion. Fulham are 9-2 to finish in the top two and 11-4 to be promoted. But they need to find some firepower. They have the tools to go up, says Fisher of the Guardian, "but must keep their manager, Slavisa Jokanovic, who has made worrying noises over the transfer policy, saying his list of summer targets has been ignored".
Sheffield Wednesday, who have qualified for the play-offs for the past two seasons, and Norwich are also tipped for a promotion push. They are both available at 10-3 to go up. So too are Wolves. On the face of it Derby "are weaker than last time around with Will Hughes among those to have left", says the Guardian.
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But that pressure may at least explain why, according to Ian Whittell of The Times, "the longevity of Championship-level managers is down there with First World War fighter pilots". Mick McCarthy of Ipswich is the longest serving manager in the Championship and will celebrate his fifth anniversary at Portman Road if he survives until November.
Aside from Nuno Espirito Santo at Wolves, the most intriguing managerial appointment of the summer must be former Russia boss Leon Slutsky at Hull. While Sunderland may benefit from Simon Grayson's experience, it remains to be seen what sort of influence Slutsky has on his side.
He has used his friendship with Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich to good effect, but there could be trouble ahead, says Sky Sports. Managerial influence may also make it worth watching the fortunes of Preston (20-1), who have Alex Neil, who was tipped for the top when he won promotion with Norwich, at the helm. Harry Redknapp at Birmingham will be hard to ignore and their odds are just 7-1. If you are after an outsider, former Rangers boss Mark Warburton could surprise a few people at Nottingham Forest, who are finally free of the chaotic ownership of Fawaz al-Hasawi and available at 12-1.
The Week incorporates The First Post.Furthermore, an estimator is said to be unbiased if its expected value is equal to the true value of the unknown parameter being estimated, and asymptotically unbiased if its expected value converges at the limit to the true value of such parameter. Other desirable properties for estimators include: UMVUE estimators that have the lowest variance for all possible values of the parameter to be estimated (this is usually an easier property to verify than efficiency) and consistent estimators which converges in probability to the true value of such parameter.
This still leaves the question of how to obtain estimators in a given situation and carry the computation, several methods have been proposed: the method of moments, the maximum likelihood method, the least squares method and the more recent method of estimating equations. Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a null hypothesis which is usually (but not necessarily) that no relationship exists among variables or that no change occurred over time.
The null hypothesis, H0, asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H1, asserts that the defendant is guilty. The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H0 (status quo) stands in opposition to H1 and is maintained unless H1 is supported by evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt". However, "failure to reject H0" in this case does not imply innocence, but merely that the evidence was insufficient to convict.
So the jury does not necessarily accept H0 but fails to reject H0. While one can not "prove" a null hypothesis, one can test how close it is to being true with a power test, which tests for type II errors. What statisticians call an alternative hypothesis is simply a hypothesis that contradicts the null hypothesis.
Working from a null hypothesis, two basic forms of error are recognized:Standard deviation refers to the extent to which individual observations in a sample differ from a central value, such as the sample or population mean, while Standard error refers to an estimate of difference between sample mean and population mean.
A statistical error is the amount by which an observation differs from its expected value, a residual is the amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of the expected value assumes on a given sample (also called prediction). Mean squared error is used for obtaining efficient estimators, a widely used class of estimators.
Root mean square error is simply the square root of mean squared error. Many statistical methods seek to minimize the residual sum of squares, and these are called "methods of least squares" in contrast to Least absolute deviations. The latter gives equal weight to small and big errors, while the former gives more weight to large errors. Residual sum of squares is also differentiable, which provides a handy property for doing regression.
Least squares applied to linear regression is called ordinary least squares method and least squares applied to nonlinear regression is called non-linear least squares.
Also in a linear regression model the non deterministic part of the model is called error term, disturbance or more simply noise. Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error. Any estimates obtained from the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample estimate matches the true value in the whole population.If anything, we underestimated the speed and force with which this trend would unfold.
For example, 52 percent of the people in this age group showed a preference for premium products, compared to just 32 percent in 2012.
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They leaped from being the most conservative age group to the one most likely to trade up. Similarly, the preference for famous brand names among these older buyers jumped by more than 20 percent, fully closing the previous difference among cohorts.
That said, the upper age group has remained more pragmatic and cost conscious than any other age group, as we discuss in the following section. Back in 2011, even as we were predicting changes in the behavior and preferences of Chinese consumers, we also saw ways in which their essential pragmatism would likely stay the same.
For instance, we anticipated that impulse buying would remain lower than in other countries and that value for money would continue to be an important consideration when choosing products and services. Interestingly, Chinese consumers across all age groups have, in some ways, become even more pragmatic. The individual consumer We also predicted that as Chinese consumers aspire to a better life and trade up their purchases, they would become more discerning and gradually more individualistic.
This would lead, for example, to a shift toward more healthy choices, more user-friendly products, and products and brands that better fit their personality.
This could be a big opportunity for niche brandsand a threat to the mass-market brands that had won big in previous years by using scale and ubiquitous availability, supported by the trust gained by heavy advertising. Our latest research certainly shows a decrease in consumption in categories deemed less healthy and a willingness to spend significantly more on health and more environmentally conscious categories. It also shows consumers are more likely to spend more to indulge themselves and more likely to try new technology.
While their consumption choices have become more individualistic, though, it is important to note that family values continue to be at the top of their priorities (Exhibit 3). One area our predictions missed, however, was by anticipating that consumers, as they became more individualistic in their choices, might focus less on basic product reliability and safety.
Perhaps in part because of a number of more recent food scandals, however, consumers seemed more concerned with these issues in 2015 than they were before. When our team first started researching Chinese consumers, nearly ten years ago, many of us were surprised by their fickle attitude toward brands.
Fewer than half of consumers tended to stick with their favorite brands, compared, for example, with almost three quarters of US consumers.
As we debated this tendency while making our predictions, we wondered if, in the clash between pragmatism and individualism, brand loyalty would stay low, increase, or even decline. Ultimately, we decided it would increase as the emotional benefits of brands became more important to consumers and as increased choice and availability of branded products (online and off) would allow consumers to optimize for price and convenience without changing choices too often.
Our recent research confirmed the changes we anticipated. Consumers are now significantly less likely to buy a brand that is not already among their favorites, continuing the upward trend we observed in 2011 (Exhibit 4). The modern shopper Our 2011 predictions were bullish on e-commerce, predicting that Chinese consumers would adapt their channel choices even faster than has occurred in developed markets. We estimated that by 2020, online consumer-electronics purchases would jump to 40 percent, from about 10 percent.
More mainstream categories would rise to 15 percent, and some categories, such as groceries (now below 1 percent), could reach about 10 percent. These changes are occurring even as the enduring pragmatism and diligence of the Chinese consumer continue to be in place. Our latest research shows that consumers of all age groups are much more likely to collect information online, even on fast-moving consumer goods, than they were just three years ago. In 2015, online food and beverages sales (excluding fresh) reached 7.
The online share of consumer-electronic purchases, meanwhile, has reached a whopping 39 percent in 2015, and it now looks possible that by 2020 it will be about 50 percent of overall sales.
Making predictions may be difficult, especially about the futureas US Baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra famously observed. But they can still provide valuable foresight for executives.
Create a profile to get full access to our articles and reports, including those by McKinsey Quarterly and the McKinsey Global Institute, and to subscribe to our newsletters and email alerts. McKinsey Quarterly Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964.You don't want your moisturizer to clog pores right after you've cleaned them.
These kinds of moisturizers, as opposed to cream-based moisturizers, won't make your skin feel as clammy and oily. What is a toner. A toner is a lotion or wash that helps shrink your pores while cleaning grime and dirt away. Be careful about toners with alcohol because they will wipe away the oil from your face. This causes more oil to be produced, along with more acne.
Find a toner that is low on alcohol but still effective. Doctors aren't completely sure why, but they do know that there is a link between stress and skin disorders, specifically stress and acne. Somehow, the cells that produce sebum, which is the stuff that ultimately causes acne, become unregulated when a person experiences a lot of stress.
Some people detach from stressful situations by taking a walk. Others pour their stress out onto a canvas by painting. Whatever it is that you do to decompress, do it early and do it often.
There are numerous meditation techniques, so find the one(s) that work for you. Some people choose yoga for meditation. Speaking of sleep, change your pillowcase on a regular basis. Consider wrapping your pillowcase in a towel to absorb oil. You can flip the towel over the next night. Teenagers should try to get between 10 to 11 hours of sleep per night.
For pretty much any ailment aside from muscle or bone damage, exercise is a panacea. Exercise is a great option for getting your circulation going, and anything that promotes good circulation also helps keep your skin healthy and vibrant-looking. The benefits of getting your circulation jump started can be outweighed by the disadvantages of sun damage if you're not careful.
Wear sunscreen that is light and doesn't irritate or sting your skin. When you sweat, your pores can get clogged with salty, dirty residue that's leftover from your workout. Be sure to wash your body, and especially your face, after you exercise. Benzoyl peroxide is used to kill the bacteria that contribute to acne. Benzoyl peroxide comes in different concentrations, but benzoyl peroxide with a 2.
Benzoyl peroxide also helps peel away layers of dead skin, leaving brighter, more rejuvenated skin in its place. Like benzoyl peroxide, salicylic acid kills bacteria responsible for pimple growth.
It also causes skin cells to shed more rapidly, promoting the growth of new skin. Put small amounts of salicylic acid onto affected areas before you go asleep, after you have washed your face. Toothpaste contains silica, which is the drying agent you find in bags of beef jerky, among other things. Basically, toothpaste will dry out your pimple overnight, reducing it in size. Some toothpastes containing sodium lauryl sulfate can irritate the skin.
Watch out for it before applying. Tea tree oil is an antibacterial essential oil that can blast the microbes that have started to make a home inside of your pores. With a dropper, dab a Q-Tip with a bit of tea tree oil and apply to pimples as needed, being careful not to put on too much. Crush up an aspirin tablet and add just enough water to make it into a paste.
With a Q-Tip, add the aspirin paste to the pimple(s) lightly, covering entirely.